2020 Vision.

In our 2009 Home Moving Trends survey, 29% of homeowners had lived in the same property for more than 10 years. This year’s survey highlights that this has risen to 51%.

There were 1.2 million homes sold in 2018/19, 30% lower than the peak of 2006/07.

11% of landlords expect their portfolio to reduce in size over the next two years, (potentially that could mean c.297,000 properties will be sold) whilst 18% expect theirs to increase, (potentially buying 486,000)

At the start of this millennium the UK population was 58.89 million. At the end of 2018 it had risen by 12.8% to 68.44 million.

What might these statistics suggest?

I have no more idea than anyone else what the result of the general election will be. I have no idea whether Brexit will be concluded or not. I wouldn’t have a clue about what will happen to the US, Chinese or UK economies – or anywhere else. Judging by hundreds of contrasting forecasts, nor do most people – or rather, lots think they know what’s ahead but their opinion jars with others that are equally deluded about their ability to predict the future.

What I can say with certainty though is that we all need to live somewhere and we all want to live in the best property for us. I also know that people continue to grow up, get married, have kids, have more kids, divorce, remarry, change jobs, die and experience other life stages that often trigger the need or desire to move home.

So right now my sense is we need to plan as much for a potential upturn as for a recession. If confidence returns then we know that historically this leads, indeed fuels, increased activity in the property market. My concern is for people that are so busy imagining a glass half empty world that they fail to see it as half full and miss out on the opportunities that could come their way.

On December 19th, one week after the general election, we’ve booked one of the country’s most in-demand behavioural economists, Roger Martin-Fagg, to share his views with our members. Roger has called the results of the last two general elections, the Trump victory and the decline in the Chinese economy far ahead of the events and so whilst he’s not always right his record is way better than most. Also, I’ll be sharing some of the key aspects of the plans we’ve helped agents to create to gain a distinctive advantage and the things you need to focus on next year.

We have some additional places available for this free event in London which I’d like to offer to readers of four-i. Please register here for your chance to get a really clear picture of what to expect in 2020 and more importantly, what to do.

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