4i Newsletter Masthead 414


fouri 414 Knowns

I worked with five extraordinary business leaders last week where we attempted to map out what 2027 will look like.

We identified three types of knowns that helped shape our thinking.

1. Known knowns

We started by listing the things we could near guarantee.
As the focus was on the property sector, the following were agreed:

  • People will still have the same life stages: First time renter, experienced renter, first time buyer, first time seller, experienced seller, marriage/cohabiting, first child, second/more children, divorce, job relocation, downsize, etc.
  • People will still have the same lifestyle ambitions
  • Property will be most homeowner’s most valuable asset
  • Sellers and landlords will want to get the best price possible
  • Landlords, and many sellers, will have time pressures/goals

2. Likely knowns

We then considered the key factors that were likely to occur and be in place:

  • Transaction numbers will fluctuate but remain within known parameters
  • Despite political rhetoric to the contrary, new build supply will be similar to the last 5-10 years
  • There will be a reduced talent pool
  • Environmental issues will increase in importance
  • Legislation/compliance will increase
  • The transaction process will be increasingly digitised and improved, (sales and lettings)
  • The VUCA world will continue, change will be even faster (web 3.0, Metaverse, Blockchain, AI, etc.)

3. Unknowns

Then we went speculative and discussed many hopes and fears, over which we have little/no control or influence. These included:

  • Political landscape, at home and internationally
  • Climate change
  • Pandemic(s)
  • Impact of changing demographics (aging population)
  • Home/Work/Life split/balance

This exercise resulted in the identification of several truly exciting strategies for the next five years. By identifying the different knowns, in particular the known and likely ones, it created a sense of confidence that even if the future can’t be accurately predicted, it can be created.

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