Predictable.
Last week, Property Academy members attended an exclusive presentation from US award-winning speaker and author, Mark Parrott. In his bestselling book, “Meta-Trends and the Next Economy”, Mark draws on data, principally demographics, that clearly show that other than when experiencing ‘Black Swan’ events, such as Covid19, it’s very easy to predict on a national and regional basis what’s to come.
He suggested we study three things in particular on both a national and more importantly regional basis that will give insight to near guaranteed outcomes.
1. The age and gender split of our audience.
2. How many of our audience are in their 50s?
3. The trend, i.e. is our audience static, getting younger or older?
Why do these numbers matter?
In simple terms, young males are far more likely to commit crime, do drugs, be violent, do stupid things. The female brain develops far more quickly.
“If you have a population like Mexico, then expect a crime wave for a decade or more.”
(Mexico has a very high % of young males).
People in their 50s spend the most, earn the most, produce the most and invest the most.
“You can tell the health of any economy in the world based on how many 50 year olds they have.”
The UK, along with 128 other “first world” countries, including the USA and Canada, has an aging population.
“You cannot manufacture 50 year olds – the peak age for immigration in western countries is 30. The only way to correct the trend is immigration, there are no 50 year olds being born.”
In the US, the equivalent of our census is produced quarterly, for us, once a decade. Fortunately, the next report, based on the 2021 survey, will be published between March 2022 and March 2023. This will give us the ability to study the key demographics for our locations that will in turn enable us to predict how our local economies will perform. As evidenced by the different charts showing the UK as a whole and London separately, there are significant differences between locations, not least urban and rural.
When planning your business for the longer term, I suggest it’s important to study these and other Meta-Trends…they always result in the same outcomes, put simply, the future is predictable.
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