4i Newsletter Masthead 376

In Roger we trust

fouri 376 Roger

Since our inception, members have received a regular economic outlook/forecast from one of our trusted advisors, behavioural economist, Roger Martin-Fagg.

Roger’s record is extraordinary. He’s called the results of the last three general elections and both the Trump and Biden victories months ahead of polling day. In 20 years he’s identified each recession/depression and recovery, nearly always going against the tide of opinion.

In March 2020 he stated that we would have a boom once covid became managed – (when I posted his opinion on social media I received a barrage of comments ridiculing both of us) – and once again his forecast has come true.

Roger always emphasises that he’s precisely wrong… but for two decades he’s been broadly right.

Here are the headlines from Roger’s latest update (May 2021):

  • By the end of this year average UK house price will go up 10% ( London 3%, North West 12%)
  • CPI inflation 3-4%
  • Materials shortages throughout the year as covid significantly reduces shipping capacity
  • Wage growth will be 4-5%
  • Labour shortages in all sectors
  • Long run interest rate 1.5%, policy rate 0.25%
  • UK share prices on average up 6%
  • Exchange rate $1.42, Euro 1.20
  • Hospitality will boom
  • The High Street will recover, but only for distinctive and compelling stores.
  • The EU will continue to suffer from the ineptness of Brussels on vaccines and covid support.

I have no doubt that Roger’s predictions will generate another round of abusive commentary but so be it. I wanted to share them beyond our membership to our four-i subscribers because we all need more than a shot in the arm and Roger’s forecast is as good, if not better, than any vaccine.

If you’d like to come to a trial meeting to see if membership is right for you then you’ll receive a copy of Roger’s full bulletin which you can keep whether you join or not. Register your interest here.

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